Look-a-Like of the Day 11/3/11

Elmer Fudd or Wade Phillips? Neither has any idea of what's going on ever.

Boredom turns into Gambling

I've finally reached the bottom, folks. Losing loads of money at Foxwoods playing poker and going 0-5 in my NFL bets this week wasn't enough. So, I've finally decided that I was going to reach absolute rock bottom in my gambling. I just placed a bet on "Slovan Bratislava -2". Now, if you can tell me who or what sport that team or person is playing, you should probably visit www.gamblersanonymous.org.

Apparently Slovan Bratislava is facing off against "Paris Saint Germain" in some sort of soccer match. Whether these are two people playing in their backyard somewhere in Europe, or this involves two teams actually playing soccer in a real stadium is still unclear to me. But, go Slovan!

Look-A-Like of the Day (11/02/11)

Today's look-a-like of the day looks at an actor from a favorite HBO show and an Olympic hero...

Rhys Coiro (a.k.a Billy Walsh from Entourage) and Sabres' goalie Ryan Miller

Manning for MVP...Ever?

Outrageous as it may seem, if there wasn't a dude called Aaron Rodgers playing near perfect quarterback for the Packers right now, Peyton Manning could legitimately considered for this year's MVP. Look, I know you can't actually give a guy who is inactive for the entire year the MVP award, but what a tribute it would be to probably the MVPE(Most Valuable PLayer Ever) to any one franchise ever. If we truly take pride in the person that is most valuable to his team getting the award, I think Manning should command some real attention in the argument.

With Peyton, the Colts have been a perennial regular season powerhouse in the AFC and have dominated their South division since its birth. With Curtis Picasso Painter and Kerry Collins, the 2011 Peytonless Colts have put together games that are anything but masterpieces, on their way to a putrid 0-8 start. This offense and entire team was built solely around Peyton's right arm and brilliant football mind, and the Colts are simply in a state of utter chaos without him around. Supposedly, Manning was surrounded by great weapons. Well how are Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne faring this year without Peyton behind center? Not too good is the answer to that. Peyton had to throw Reggie Wayne open, and Curtis Painter isn't squeezing the balls into the tiny windows that Peyton could. Dallas Clark's numbers this year are pedestrian at best. But not only have Manning's effects been felt in the offense, the defense has also struggle due to Manning's absense.The defense was built to play from ahead early and get after the passer with a couple of great pass rushing defensive ends. Now that they are constantly on the field and must defend a more grind it out game, they are getting smashed in the mouth by the run and are a terrible 31st in the league in total defense. Even their defense struggles because of Manning.

And can the comparisons with Tom Brady just stop? Each have had great success as an NFL quarterback, and I don't want to take anything away from what Tom Brady has done. But, the Patriots without Tom Brady are still a solid functioning franchise with whatever quarterback they team up with the great Bill Belichick at the helm(See Matt Cassel wikipedia 2008). What the Colts are without Peyton Manning speaks volumes about his value to the entire team. And in a game where the individual's success depends so much on his teammates and coaches' schemes, Peyton has been one of the only players to take a team's success and put it directly on his shoulders. Here's to you MVPE.

Who's more overrated than Joe Flacco?

So I am on the front page of ESPN.com and they are really trying to tell me that Joe Flacco is an elite QB. The media seems to love to force guys like this down our throats by saying things like "this guy can make all the throws". Who cant make all the throws (besides Tebow)? This is the go to compliment you will hear any color guy saying during a broadcast involving a young QB. It's like no one even watches these guys actually play before they start praising them, and it's only because they have seen a highlight reel of the guys best throws. Some of the public seems to agree with them since 19% are calling him elite in an ESPN poll. I mean really, JOE FLACCO elite? Are you kidding me?

So you are really trying to tell me Flacco deserves to be talked about in the same breath as Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady? Flacco's 75.4 rating puts him 27th in the NFL, behind the likes of Chad Henne, Tavaris Jackson and Kyle Orton. Not exactly the guys you want to be connected with. Flacco's rating actually doesn't truly reflect how bad he has been this year. He padded his stats in 2 blowout games against the Steelers and Rams. In his other 5 games he has 2 TD passes and 6 INTs. Not exactly elite.

The best part of this argument is how much credit he gets for his playoff wins. Everyone who likes him will go right to all his playoff road victories, but what no one will mention is his extremely underwhelming stats in those games. Let first look at his rookie season which left talking heads all over America singing his praises.

3 games, 33/75 44%, 437 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs, 50.8 passer rating.

That is a real stat line folks. That is downright miserable. On top of that, for a guy that is so "clutch", he had an 18 passer rating in their biggest game, the AFC Championship game. It has not been much better since either. This past season, after beating on an overrated Chiefs team, he had a 61 rating against the Steelers and couldnt hold on to the 21-7 lead that his defense gave him. He has a 61 career passer rating in the playoffs.

Joe Flacco isn't even remotely close to elite and even throwing that idea out there makes you look like a complete moron. Dont let little weasel idiots like John Clayton fool you into thinking Flacco is better than he really is. Sure he can win a Super Bowl but so can most the guys in the NFL if you give them a top defense.

Where Amazing is locked out.

I know a lot of people don't really care too much about the NBA lockout until after football season, but nights like tonight really make me miss it. Unlike our other contributors, I am not much of a hockey guy so I am left with one miserable college football game to feed my sports and gambling addiction. That just doesn't cut it. Wednesday nights are usually packed full of NBA games but all we are left with is empty arenas and 30 for 30 reruns.

I miss all the naysayers trashing the Heatles and Lebron shutting them up. I miss the rise of Durant and Rose. I miss Rajon Rondo making a fool of himself any time he tries to shoot outside of 4 feet. Most of all I miss having something to gamble on all night long. Please come back NBA, I need you.

THE MCRIB IS BACK!

Andddd apparently contains a chemical that is banned from food in Europe and Australia. The chemical is apparently a "respiratory sensitizer". Well, Europe and Australia, you're missing out. If you're eating McRibs on a consistent basis, I don't think the threat of a little bit of asthma is going to discourage you from eating them.

This kid just polished off his 3rd McRib before Noon, hello diabetes!

Royal NFL players

Because there are so many silly names in the NFL, here's a quick poll regarding two of them:

Prince Amukamara King Dunlap

Who has the better name?

Julian Edelman Arrested

Patriots water boy and sometimes wide receiver, Julian Edeleman, was arrested late last night for indecent assault at a Boston area bar. Edelman, who apparently went as Doctor Felturbum for the Halloween party, was said to have "groped" the victim while inside the bar. The victim stated, "He wouldn't leave me alone all night, and used some of the most bogus pick up lines I've ever heard. The funniest is when he told me he played wide receiver for the Patriots. He became angry when I burst out in laughter at this." Bill Belichick was questioned about the incident, and responded with, "Do I know that guy?". Edelman, who apparently was the Greenline Groper, will probably pay off the victim, and this will all brush over.

Allowing a TD in tie games inside the 2 minute warning

We've all been there. We're playing Madden, it's tied, there's 1:30 left and we have no timeouts. Your opponent has the ball at your 13 yard line after a 20 yard pass play. You're dead -- they run in twice, kick the field goal, and you lose.

Something you'll see a lot of Madden players do: allow the opponent to score a touchdown in this situation. Now, the NFL isn't a video game, but this seemingly ridiculous strategy may be the optimal strategy. The reason for this article is because this situation almost played out Monday night with the Chiefs: The Chargers had the ball at the Chiefs' 16 yard line with 1:10 remaining. The Chargers lined up as if they were going to run the ball (a terribly bad strategy to begin with). Would just letting them walk into the end zone be better than trying to stuff them and hope for a missed/blocked field goal?

Let's take a look at some of the math for this situation:

In this situation, assuming the run(s) get stuffed, we can safely assume that the game-winning field goal will be attempted from roughly 33-35 yards. Over the last 2 years, field goals from 30-39 yards have been hit at a rate of about 89.8%. Because the attempt would be from the shorter side of that range, let's just round to 90% for ease of calculation. Thus, 90% of the time, by stuffing the run, you lose in regulation. The other 10% of the time, you will go to overtime (or block the field goal and return it for a touchdown and win in regulation). Let's assume, for argument's sake, that if the game goes into overtime each team will have about a 50% chance to win. So, 10% of the time, you have a 50% chance to win (the chances of winning in regulation are beyond negligible):

0.90 *(1.00) + 0.10*(0.50) = 0.95 or 95% loss probability
0.90* (0.00) + 0.10*(0.50) = .05 or 5% WP(win probability)

Bold signifies the overtime calculation, while non-bold signifies regulation.

Now, what happens if you allow the other team to score (assuming they'll just run the ball into the end zone if you let them -- but if they don't and lay down at the 2, your chances only drop from about 5% to 3%)? Assume a TD, now you're down 7 with ~ 1 minute remaining and receiving a kickoff. With no timeouts remaining, assuming an average field position of ~27 yard line (the league average), the TD probability in this situation is about 0.18 (according to advancenflstats, though I think this may be a bit high). This means that roughly ~82% of the time, you'll lose in regulation, while 18% of the time, you can score a tying TD and head to overtime. Now, assuming the same 50/50 win probability if it goes to overtime, the outcome probability looks like this:

0.82 * (0.00) + 0.18*(0.5) = 0.09 or 9% chance of winning
0.82 * (1.00) + 0.18 * (0.50) = 0.91 or 91% chance of losing

So, you can assume that by allowing them to go to freely to the end zone helps your chances of winning. Your WP goes from 0.05 to roughly 0.09. If the 18% chance to score a TD seems ambitious, realize that even if you give the trailing team only a 10% chance to score a TD, then both strategies give you an equal win probability.

If the opposing team decides to lay down at the 2 and your win probability goes from 0.05 to 0.03, you are only losing 2% WP. Whereas, by allowing a TD, you are gaining 0.04 WP, making it a +ExpectedValue play unless they lay down at the 1 more than half the time (which is probably a lofty assumption for the intelligent people with the job of NFL RB):
0.02*x (loss from shorter FG*probability of laying down) = 0.04*(1-x) (gain from letting them score)

Math is fun, but NFL coaches often totally disregard strategies that seem "crazy" even though it increases their chances to win. There's a reason why Belichick went for it on 4th and 2, and that's because he knows isn't afraid to try unconventional things that will up his win probability.