Week 9 Confidence Picks

This is my 1st week posting my confidence picks and I will be doing this every week from here on out. My picks strategy is based on larger pools and I tend to take more risks so I can win weeks. My league pays out big to weekly winners and and not that much more to the overall winners so I go big on one upset every week. If you are in a small pool or a league that pays out big for the overall season winners, dont go as big as I do on the upset pick.

Current Standings:

667 points

1 weekly win

26th out of 110

home teams are in bold, percentage is the percentage of people that are currently picking each team.

14- Cowboys (95%) over Seahawks
13- Texans (97%) over Browns
12- Patriots (88%) over Giants, No Nicks, No Bradshaw, Just too many injuries for the Giants to have a chance. Patriots don't lost back to back games.

11- Falcons (96%) over Colts, The Colts are terrible against power backs and Turner should have a field day against them.

10- Packers (87%) over Chargers
9- Eagles (78%) over Bears, The Bears are the only team to really crush Michael Vick since he became the Eagles starter but I just don't think the Bears offense can keep up in this one. The Bears line still isnt very good and the Eagles are great at getting after the QB. Forte is going to need to have a huge game to keep them in this one. The eagles are starting to come together and are poised to go on a long winning streak.

8- Broncos (8%) over Raiders, As I pointed out earlier this week, Carson Palmer looks terrible and could lose this game all by himself. This is my attempt to win the week. Only 8.7% of people are picking the Broncos so if they can pull this one out I should be in the drivers seat to win the week.

7- 49ers (91%) over Redskins
6- Saints (90%) over Bucs, The saints need a bounce back victory after the beating they took last week.

5- Chiefs (92%) over Dolphins
4- Titans (45%) over Bengals

3- Rams (46%) over Cardinals, Kevin Kolb is doubtful for this one and that is very bad news for the Cards. John Skelton had a 62.3 passer rating in 5 games last year and I doubt he got much better since then. The Rams D played awesome in a win against the Saints and I expect another good effort. I also love the Rams at +3 this week.

2- Jets (35%) over Bills, I am surprised that so many people are on the Bills, I dont trust the Bills just yet.

1- Steelers (77%) over Ravens, This matchup is always to close to call and I really have no idea so I will take the home team.

LSU/Alabama picks

Brian Wilson and Lee Corso make their picks on College Game Day. Funny as always. Love when corso pulls the misdirection on the home team fans. I am going with LSU +5 tonight. Also think they will win outright. They have played 5 ranked teams and won by an average of 23.4 points. They have murdered every team in their path and seem like the team to beat this year.

Look-A-Like of the Day (11/5/11)

Who's who: Houston Texans LB Brian Cushing or Yankees First Baseman Mark Teixeira?

LSU #1 at Alabama #2

With one of the biggest games of the college football season going down today in Tuscaloosa, we'd be remiss not to mention it in our blog. Here at CONC, we're not typically enthralled by college football. And I think a lot of that has to do with the college football culture of the Northeast. There's absolutely NO good college football programs around the New England area, and we can't help but ignore watching mediocre football(Boston College getting housed by FSU this week and every ACC team for that matter) from time to time. But this is an epic game. Undefeated #1 LSU goes into Bryant-Denny stadium to face also undefeated #2 Alabama in a battle of the titans from the SEC.

In a game where the landscape of offensive theory is shifting so much toward the spread formation, two traditionalists, Nick Saban and Les Miles, find their programs at the top of the totem poll. Unlike many of their head coaching foes, Saban and Miles have stuck to the old fashioned way of winning by running the ball and playing in your face, knock you down, great physical defense. In a way, its sort of a refreshing thing to watch. It's something different from the norm in college football now-a-days, and thats something I can appreciate. Saban and Miles couldn't be playing this old school style without tremendous recruiting of both skill players and the big guys in the trenches. The fact that these two programs can play this style is a tribute to just how talented the players are on both teams. And I can't wait to tune in tonight to watch so much NFL talent in a style of game in one of its purest forms.

Bruins Early-Season Struggles

  

With the Bruins heading into their 12th game early tomorrow, things aren't looking too good for the defending Stanley Cup Champions. At 4-7-0, the Bruins are tied for last place in the Eastern Conference. There were some promising signs in Tuesday's game against the Senators (but it was against the Sens after all). For one, Tyler Seguin seems to be coming into his own and has been the best Bruin so far this season. He's averaging a point per game (11pts in 11 games) and seems to have good chemistry with Bergeron and Marchand on the second line. Also, after some line shuffling by Coach Claude "Homer Simpson" Julien, the Krejci/Lucic/Horton line seemed to play better together.

On Saturday, the Bruins face Phil Kessel and the surprising Toronto Maple Leafs. Look for some real firepower from the young Leafs team. The Bruins will have to be disciplined on defense, but will have trouble matching the top defensive pair (presumably Chara/Seidenberg) with Toronto's Lupul/Kessel line. Toronto will have the last change being at home and will most likely try to keep their top line away from Chara.  Kessel leads the league in goals and points and was a Bruin until 2009 when he was traded for some draft picks, one of which became Tyler Seguin. So, I think both teams are pretty happy with the deal right now. Look for a good game on Sunday, and don't be surprised if the Maple Leafs continue the Stanley Cup hangover for the Bruins.

Look-A-Like of the Day: 11/4/11

Is it an Ewok from Star Wars, or ESPN analyst John Kruk?

Add another to the list

Peyton Hillis aggravated his hamstring injury during Browns practice today and is most likely will be out for a few more weeks. Looks like the Madden curse strikes again. Hillis has already missed 3 games with this hamstring injury and could be out for 2-4 more. Even when Hillis has played this year he has not been great. He currently is averaging only 3.5 a rush, down from 4.4 last year. That makes the madden curse 9 for 12. You may not believe in curses but I can guarantee you dont want to see your favorite player end up on the cover of the next Madden game.

Now that Hillis looks dead everyone should rush out and pick up Chris Ogbonnaya in their fantasy leagues. Montario Hardesty has also been rules out this week so Ogbonnaya will get the bulk of the carries against the Texans. The Texans are very good against the run but Ogbonnaya should get plenty of touches and should be a solid start this week in fantasy.

Where Catch or No Catch was born

Folks, this is where it all started. Where the blurry definitions of possession and catch first started to shine in the NFL. What is a catch? What is possession? We don't know, so let's make the rules filled with tons of gray areas. The uncertainty is what makes this America's Favorite Game, because anybody can be right on a given play. Catch or No Catch?

Carson Palmer -9???

Denver Broncos +9 at Oakland Raiders

Is this line for real? Did anyone actually watch Carson Palmer 2 weeks ago? I know it was his 1st playing time in almost a year, but 8/21 and 3 INTs against a defense that coming in had been beaten up pretty bad. Remember Palmer wasn't very good last year and to think that getting to practice for 2 weeks is going to make him that much better is crazy.

I went back and watched all of Palmer's passes just to see for myself and it was worse than I could have ever expected. He has no zip at all on his passes. He tried to buzz some throws in there over the middle but he wasn't even remotely close to his intended target. He also cant throw an out route to save his life. These are longer throws and take a decent amount of arm strength and accuracy to make and he just doesnt seem to have that physical ability anymore.

For all the flack that Tim Tebow gets for being inaccurate, he might not be the worst passer in this game. From what I have seen Palmer looks like he is much less capable of being the QB of an NFL team. At least Tebow can make something happen with his legs.

I know the Raiders are 4-3 but they are coming off a game where they lost 28-0. Rather odd for a team that was beaten that badly to be more than a touchdown favorite. With the spread being so high, this also knocks the money-line out of whack. At +335 all you need is the Broncos to win 1/4 games for this to be a good bet. I got to think that at least 1/4 times Carson Palmer will blow up and throw a pick 6 or two. Also I would think that at least 1/4 times Tebow would work his magic and will the Broncos to a victory.

Another overlooked aspect of the Broncos change at QB is how a running QB makes the defensive ends stay home and opens up plenty of running room for the running backs. Here are this year running numbers when each QB has been in:

When Kyle Orton is QB- 97 rushes, 393 yards, 4.05 yards per carry.

When Tim Tebow is QB- 58 rushes, 317 yards, 5.46 yards per carry.

Clearly Tebow opens up the running game which also allows the Broncos to control the clock and keep their defense fresh. This should make this a better broncos team than the one the Raiders played in week 1. The Raiders won 23-20 but were aided by a terrible Kyle Orton fumble in Raiders territory when the ball slipped out of his hands as he was trying to throw deep. The teams looked evenly matched on that night. On that night Darren McFadden ran all over the Broncos to the tune of 150 yards on 22 carries. McFadden is battling a foot injury and looks doubtful to be able to play this time. His backup Michael Bush is a capable running back but McFadden is a super star and not having him on the field makes the Raiders a worse team.

This line is clearly too high so hop on the Broncos money-line and try to get a big score for the week. Plus it's always fun to root for the magic man Tim Tebow.

Your weekly basketball fix

At one point John Wall passes it off the wall and throws it down, does that still count as 2 points in these crazy pick up games?