Carson Palmer -9???

Denver Broncos +9 at Oakland Raiders

Is this line for real? Did anyone actually watch Carson Palmer 2 weeks ago? I know it was his 1st playing time in almost a year, but 8/21 and 3 INTs against a defense that coming in had been beaten up pretty bad. Remember Palmer wasn't very good last year and to think that getting to practice for 2 weeks is going to make him that much better is crazy.

I went back and watched all of Palmer's passes just to see for myself and it was worse than I could have ever expected. He has no zip at all on his passes. He tried to buzz some throws in there over the middle but he wasn't even remotely close to his intended target. He also cant throw an out route to save his life. These are longer throws and take a decent amount of arm strength and accuracy to make and he just doesnt seem to have that physical ability anymore.

For all the flack that Tim Tebow gets for being inaccurate, he might not be the worst passer in this game. From what I have seen Palmer looks like he is much less capable of being the QB of an NFL team. At least Tebow can make something happen with his legs.

I know the Raiders are 4-3 but they are coming off a game where they lost 28-0. Rather odd for a team that was beaten that badly to be more than a touchdown favorite. With the spread being so high, this also knocks the money-line out of whack. At +335 all you need is the Broncos to win 1/4 games for this to be a good bet. I got to think that at least 1/4 times Carson Palmer will blow up and throw a pick 6 or two. Also I would think that at least 1/4 times Tebow would work his magic and will the Broncos to a victory.

Another overlooked aspect of the Broncos change at QB is how a running QB makes the defensive ends stay home and opens up plenty of running room for the running backs. Here are this year running numbers when each QB has been in:

When Kyle Orton is QB- 97 rushes, 393 yards, 4.05 yards per carry.

When Tim Tebow is QB- 58 rushes, 317 yards, 5.46 yards per carry.

Clearly Tebow opens up the running game which also allows the Broncos to control the clock and keep their defense fresh. This should make this a better broncos team than the one the Raiders played in week 1. The Raiders won 23-20 but were aided by a terrible Kyle Orton fumble in Raiders territory when the ball slipped out of his hands as he was trying to throw deep. The teams looked evenly matched on that night. On that night Darren McFadden ran all over the Broncos to the tune of 150 yards on 22 carries. McFadden is battling a foot injury and looks doubtful to be able to play this time. His backup Michael Bush is a capable running back but McFadden is a super star and not having him on the field makes the Raiders a worse team.

This line is clearly too high so hop on the Broncos money-line and try to get a big score for the week. Plus it's always fun to root for the magic man Tim Tebow.