Running Blog: MNF Week 8 (SD v KC)

8:49 PM: Jaws just said that Matt Cassel was one of the best in the business at delivering throws with arm strength and accuracy... That may be one of most outlandish statements I've ever heard. That's like saying Dan Connolly is one of the best in the business at returning kicks. Just because he did it one time doesn't mean he's suddenly Devin Hester.

9:03 PM: Todd Haley (and his casual get-up) challenge the ruling on the field of a fumble by Dexter McCluster. If your forearm is down before the ball comes out, the runner is ruled down. If the buttocks is down before the ball comes out, the runner is also ruled down. Turns out, though, a new NFL rule states that if both parts are down before the ball comes out, the call is a fumble.

9:43 PM: Because I was so interested by what Jaws said earlier, I decided to look at Cassel's stats this year coming into tonight. In games against real teams (sorry Vikings and Colts, you don't count), those being the Chargers, Raiders, Bills and Lions, Cassel's stats were: 147 yards passing/game, 3 TDs, 7 Ints, and a 1-3 record. That's good for a 58.2 passer rating. That sounds pretty elite to me.

10:00PM: Offensive Pass Interference? Jaws hit this one on the head: "What's a catch, what's pass interference? I don't know, let them play".

10:15 P.M.: Has Cassel completed a pass tonight, or this year for that matter, when teams have rushed more than 4? I sure as hell haven't seen it tonight. Bad QBs always have trouble when any type of pressure is put on them. Also, where is 2008-10 Philip Rivers? Anytime you want to show up would be fine with me.

10:46 P.M.: Surprise, surprise the Chargers rush 5 and Cassel tries to force a ball into Dwayne Bowe for an interception. Cassel now 1 of his last 8.

11:40 PM: Patrick Crayton should have 75 speed rating in Madden. Nice breakaway burst.

Bizzaro Andrew Luck

With my latest foxwoods woes combined with my 0-4 NFL picks record this week, I've come to decide that I'm simply an unlucky person(at least lately). As Papa Lito has stated, our family got lucky with looks, wits, and athletic ability, but we are just downright unlucky in gambling. On our way to Foxwoods for our usual weekend poker session, Natedogg and I stopped at McDonalds and ordered two Monopoly value meals. In fact, I only ordered a chicken nugget value meal in hopes of pulling a Boardwalk piece on my way to being a millionaire(well half, we agreed to split). And wouldn't you know it, no monopoly pieces came on my nuggets' casing(lol). At that point, we should have just turned around to head home, but onward we went to play a 7 hour poker session in which I lost way more money than I can afford. Enough ranting. Anyway, I'd say SanDiego is a stone cold lock tonight at Kansas City. So if you have any sense, lay your house down on the opposite of my bet and go KC +3.5.

Look-A-Like of the Day (10/30/11)

In honor of NFL Sunday, our look-a-like of the day:

Andy Reid or the Hamburglar? Who is which? We'll never tell.

America's Favorite Game: Catch or No Catch

The NFL rules always seem to get a laugh out of me. This one is from last year but too good not to post.

What's your call?

Week 8 NFL Picks

Brett's picks:

Looking at this week’s lines, there’s some slim-pickens in terms of value. However, because we’ve decided on picking 5 games per week, here goes:

1. Dallas +3 at Philadelphia - I’d like it much more if it was +3.5, but I think Dallas is an underrated team that can pull this one out in Philly. Eagles have never lost with Andy Reid coming out of their bye, but I think this is the week.

2. Cincinatti vs. Seattle Under 37.5 - A couple anemic offenses here with good defenses. Benson is out and the Seahawks have a very stout run defense, could be a low one.

3. Detroit -2.5 at Denver - Tough to go against the Tebows here, but the Lions’ front 7 should give Denver plenty of problems. Tebow could be in for a worse statistical passing game than last week (that’s possible???).

4. Carolina - 3 vs. Minnesota - Carolina is an amazing 5-1-1 ATS this year, and I look for the success to continue against a beaten up Minnesota defense.

5. New Orleans -13.5 at St. Louis - 2 TD favorites on the road against a lowly Rams team without Sam Bradford. Normally I wouldn’t like to lay this many points, but I have 2 letters and a word for you: A.J. Feeley.

0-0-0 on the season

A.J. Feeley wishes it was still 2002

Kyle's Picks:

1.) San Diego -3 at Kansas City: Yes I know, division rival at a tough stadium to play at. But that doesn’t mean anything when Jackie Battle(who?) and Matt Cassel are your offensive stars. SD big.
2.) Jacksonville +9.5 at Houston. I think 9.5 is a lot of points here. Jacksonville’s D has been playing better and will keep them in the game, and MJD control the clock and make this a close one.
3.) Cleveland + 9 at San Fran. Another one where the spread seems to be a little too high. Cleveland is a scrappy team and might even scratch one out on the road here against an overrated Niners team.
4.) Seattle +2 against Cincinatti. Cedric Benson is out and Tavaris Jackson will likely be back. With Seattle’s D and their home crowd against a mediocre at best offense, look for Seattle to come out on top.
5.) New York Giants -10 against Miami. With Miami in turmoil and the Giants at home looking to get to the top of the NFC East, look for the Giants to put a thumping on this Dolphins defense and pressure Matt Moore into some poor decisions.

2 Dolphins fans who surely would like to see the Fins "Suck for Luck"

0-0-0 on the season

Tebow 3:16

Okay. I get it. All the criticisms, all the naysayers. Wondering if He is actually right handed. Asking yourself if an NFL team could be successful with a QB passing at a cool 45% for the year. Imagining the possibilities of a Pro Bowl starting offensive line consisting of Jamarcus Russell and Tim Tebow at tackle and guard respectively. I get all that. But as the great Jon Gruden would say, this guy, this guy is a football player. You can’t measure Tebow’s success by simply looking at his passing stats. This guy has more than intangibles, he has timtanglibles(Even more immeasurable than intangibles).

And I know that everybody wants a conventional top QB like SuperTom Brady or Peyton Manning. But nothing about Tebow is conventional. Everybody needs to think a lot more like Taco bell(outside the box) when it comes to Him and realize He’s not going to complete 60% of his passes, hit wide open players 40 yards down the field, or do anything a normal quarterback should. But Jesus wasn’t normal, and he turned out pretty damn good, didnt’ he(Note: Jesus actually ended life pretty horrificly, see the bible for more info. But I digress). Tebow is a different breed, and though I nor anyone else can put their finger on it, the dude seems to somehow be effective and just wins games

And all the while, whether you love him or hate Him, I don’t think there’s any way you can’t tune in to watch. He sort of has that Brett Favre effect in a sense. Though there was a lot of hate for Favre, I’m sure you couldn’t help but tune in and watch the Wizard Gunslinger magically lead game winning touchdown drives in the Lambeau snow or throw heart wrenching interceptions to lose gigantic playoff games. Tebow has that same sort of inspiration and charm to his game, and it’s must see TV. And whether or not this Magical Man will become successful in the long run is remained to be seen. Only time will tell. But you can’t spell Time without Tim.

Look-A-Like of the Day (10/28/11)

Is it Matt D, or Jess from the Domino's commercial?

NHL Betting Scheme #1 USA GOGO

With the NHL season in full swing, the most logical thing to do was to... try to figure out a way to beat the oddsmakers. Obviously. After doing a little (and I mean a little) brainstorming, the plan was to look at the top 5 and bottom 5 teams in Goals Per Game and Goals Against Average with the idea that if two teams in the top five in goals per game met up, the result would be an over. Looking at last year’s results, and using the standard O/U line of 5.5, it was found that roughly 17 of the 23 games between 2 of these 5 teams went over, a huge advantage. Obviously there is some bias to this, as the teams’ final GPG average was skewed by these individual games.

So, using the same idea and stretching the previous year’s (09-10) top 5 into the 10-11 season yielded less fruitful results. Of the 30 games between these teams, only 13 of them went over. However, the caveat to this is that the Penguins were one of the top 5 from 09-10. Pittsburgh was decimated by injuries last year so many of the games involving them tended to stay under. Maybe a healthy Pittsburgh team shifts the advantage back to the over side.

HE'S BAAAAAACK!!

With both of these things in mind, my idea is to check the games every night , looking at the current season (‘11-12) running GPG and GAA totals. If teams from the top/bottom 5 are meeting in a given night, that game will be an over bet or and under bet respectively. So, last night the Stars and Kings met, they had allowed the 3rd and 4th least goals per game (3rd and 4th in GAA). This meant this game should be bet as an under (the line was 5). The Kings ended up winning 5-3, so 0-1 for the year on Unders.

I also wanted to look at combinations, i.e. when a team was top 5 in GPG playing against a team that was bottom 5 in GAA, or vice versa. Last night, Philly (4th in GPG) played against Winnipeg (3rd worst GAA). This game would be an example of an over bet (the line was 5.5). The game BARELY went over... okay not really -- the final was 9-8. So 1-0 for the year on Overs.I plan on continuing to map this over the course of the year and see how the system fares.

A Spectacular Game 6

With David Freese’s walk off home run in the 11th inning last night, Game 6 cemented itself as one of the greatest postseason games in MLB history. It also set the stage for a deciding Game 7 to close out an already great World Series. Sadly, not that many people watched it, and I can understand why. The games are too long and there are far too many stoppages; however, those who did tune it last night were graced with a classic. Some modern era games that could rival last night’s: Carter walks off in ’93, Gibson limping around the bases in ’88, *GASP* Buckner in ’86, Puckett in ’91. This one was right up there with all of those.

Frightening

To recap (for those of you that didn’t watch it), the Cardinals were down to their final strike twice, with Freese in the 9th and Lance Berkman in the 10th. Though there was plenty of drama before the 9th, let’s start there (because that’s about when baseball gets exciting, and even then it’s rare). With runners on 1st and 2nd and 2 outs, Freese came to plate against Rangers’ closer Neftali Feliz down 2 runs. Freese took a fastball from Feliz and drove it to the warning track in deep right. Rangers’ RF Nelson Cruz seemed to tip-toe back to the track and misplayed the ball into a triple that scored both runs and tied the game. The bigger issue with this play was Cruz’s positioning. In this situation you can’t allow a double(or triple) that scores the tying run. Cruz, while playing deep, was not playing deep enough. On initial viewing it appeared as though he was playing back in a “no doubles” defense, but upon further review it was clear that Ron Washington’s bald halo made an egregious error by not positioning his outfielders correctly. That play alone may cost the Rangers their first World Series title, and there will not be enough backlash in the media regarding Washington’s mistake.

Separated at birth?

In the top of the 10th, Hamilton put the Rangers up by 2 with a home run to right-center off of Cards’ closer Jason Motte (nice try with the Brian Wilson beard). Get the ginger ale ready! Again up 2, the Rangers headed into the bottom of the 10th. Who do you think the Rangers turned to? – None other than 56 year old Darren Oliver. Descalso and Jay both singled to put runners on 1st and 2nd. Kyle Lohse sacrificed the runners over. The bunt was almost disastrous as Lohse nearly lined out to the hard charging Beltre. Ryan Theriot grounded out to third, scoring Descalso and cutting the lead to 1. Pujols was intentionally walked, bringing up Berkman with 1st and 2nd and 2 outs. During Phil Mickelson… er, Lance Berkmans’ at bat, the outfield was positioned extremely deep with all three outfielders basically on the warning track (far deeper than in Freese’s AB). Berkman hit a looping liner to center, scoring Jay and tying the game.

Allen Craig grounded to third and ended the inning. Jake Westbrook came on for the Cardinals and got through the top of the 11th only allowing a single.

Freese led off the 11th with a deep home run to center. It was the fourth walk off home run in a Game 6 in World Series history. How fitting was it that the game ended this way? The trivia question of the night on Fox was: “How many Game 6s have ended in a walk off home run?” There were 3, until last night. Bostonians all remember Fisk’s iconic home run in the ’75 series (they of course still lost in Game 7). Kirby Puckett’s dazzling catch and subsequent walk off in ’91, and Joe Carter jumping around the bases as the Blue Jays won the World Series in ’93.

Now you can add David Freese and the 2011 Cardinals to that list.