With all the free agent moves in such a short period of time, the lines are all over the place and it leaves plenty of room to try to middle these bets. These lines are usually pretty dead on so if you are getting a game or two in the middle you have a pretty good shot of middling it. 18 of the lines are at least 2 games different, 5 are 3 games different and we have 2 that are 4 games apart. Odds say you are going to middle a few of those and pick up a bunch of cash at pretty much no risk. Pretty much free money right now at the sports books.
Let say I am putting 5k on each side of the 4 gap lines, 3k on the 3 gap lines and 1k on the 2 gap lines and see how it pans out at the end of the year. This one should be a big winner.
For each of the over/unders I will bet between 1-4 units. A unit can be $10 or $10,000 depending on the person. Lets just say I am betting $100 a game.
There are only 66 games this year rather than the usual 82 so I will post how many wins each team had last year based on if they had played a 66 game season. The lines look weird this year with only 80% of the games being played so it's good to have a reference point.
You also may notice that I am on more overs than unders but there is a reason for that. When you add up the win totals on one of the sites that number comes to 973 wins. Since there are 990 wins available this year that means that they should be more overs than unders. There is usually a slight difference like this every year but I have never see it like this before.
Atlanta Hawks (35 wins last year) UNDER 34.5 (-105), 2 units- After the All-Star break last year Atlanta was 10-17. They did end up beating the Magic in a playoff series but I am not exactly sure how impressive that is. Atlanta was starting to look like a team that was on their last legs and now they have lost one of their leading scorers in Jamal Crawford. With Crawford in Portland, Atlanta is left with a very weak bench. They brought in Tracy McGrady to help fill the void but they cant really be serious with that move. McGrady is done and so are the Hawks as a contender.
Boston Celtics (45 wins) OVER 38.5 (-133), 2 game middle, 1 unit- This line was 40.5 on one site and gives us a pretty solid middle opportunity. This line feels like it is close but I still don't think the Celtics drop off that much just yet. This isn't a great bet but I said I would bet them all. Boston is old but they have also played together for a long time now and should have a big advantage over teams that were just slapped together a week ago. Going 39-27 doesn't seem like it is too hard for these guys. They didn't add much to their roster but they didn't really lose anyone either. getting 2nd year player Avery Bradley to make the leap this year could be a big help in the backcourt.
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| BISMACK BIYOMBO!! |
Chicago Bulls (49 wins) OVER 47.5 (-125), 2 units- 48 wins might be a lot but this team is young and should be more prepared than anyone for the this many games in a short period of time. Last year Chicago got past this number even with injuries to Noah (missed 34 games) and Boozer (23 games). When both were healthy they were nearly unbeatable and I would think they would only be better now that they have a full year together as a team. They ended the season on a 28-4 run and should pick up from their. They bring back everyone from last year and shouldn't miss a beat.
Cleveland Cavaliers (15 wins) OVER 16.5 (-125), 3 units- I know the Cavs are bad but they suffered tons of injuries last year and still almost got to this number. Varejao missed 51 games and Jamison 26 games. Both are back and fully healthy now and should be a huge help to the team. I didn't like the trade of J.J. Hickson for Omri Casspi but I still think Casspi can help them and should give them some much needed outside shooting. The big additions for the Cavs came at the draft. Cleveland had the 1st and 4th picks and selected Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson. Irving is already tearing up practice and it shouldn't be long before he is the face of the franchise. They might start slow this year but I think this is a team that could have a semi strong 2nd half and should be able to get to 17-49.
Dallas Mavericks (46 wins) UNDER 44.5 (-110), 2 game middle, 4 units- Tyson Chandler is gone, J.J. Barea gone, Caron Butler gone, Peja gone. Lamar Odom in, Delonte West in, Vince Carter in. Not exactly bringing in better talent than they lost. They are also one of the older teams in the league and should have a hard time holding up with some many back to back games. Dallas may have won the title last year but they are not built to win a lot of regular season games. They seem to be about the same as Boston to me so I dont really get with this line is 44.5 and the Boston line is 38.5.
Denver Nuggets (40 wins) OVER 36.5 (-120), 2 game middle, 3 units- Before the Melo trade 32-25, after the Melo trade 18-7. Clearly Denver is fine without him and I think they continue that roll this year. They lose J.R. Smith and Wilson Chandler to China but Rudy Fernandez should be able to give them the boost they need off the bench. Also expect Ty Lawson to have a breakout year.
Detroit Pistons (24wins) OVER 20.5 (-152), 2.5 game middle, 2 units- Detroit is pretty much the same team as last year. All they lost was Rip Hamilton but they added rookie Brandon Knight to take his place. Not much to talk about here. Detroit is still not a very good team.
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| Watch out for Ekpe Udoh this year. |
Houston Rockets (35 wins) OVER 32.5 (-115), 1 unit- The Rockets might not have any star players on their team but they just keep on winning. They bring back everyone from last year but should expect some of their young players like Patrick Patterson and Chase Budinger to improve over last year. I don’t see how this team gets worse so I have to go over.
Indiana Pacers (30 wins) UNDER 37 (-110), 3 units- Everyone seems to love this team this year but I am not sure I really see it. They added David West but considering he is coming off major knee surgery, he is no sure thing. Paul George is now a starter for them but he really didn’t show much is his rookie season last year. I just don’t see how they get 8 games better and go over 37.
LA Clippers (26 wins) OVER 40.5 (-115), 2 game middle, 3 units- Chris Paul is now a Clipper and the sky is the limit. Paul is an MVP quality player and should make everyone around him better. They also add Caron Butler and Chauncey Billups to the starting lineup. Both of these guys should be huge upgrades for them and be great leaders on a team that might be able take a run at the title. The West is looking weaker this year and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Clips finally steal the spotlight from the Lakers.
LA Lakers (46 wins) Under 42.5 (-145), 2 game middle, 2 units- The Lakers are starting Josh McRoberts until Bynum gets back and expect him to play big minutes for them. That alone would get me to say under. The loss or Odom is going to be massive for them. That trade was idiotic for them and could leave them with a huge mess if/when Bynum gets hurt. Bynum tends to miss about half the season and that is 30 games when the Lakers are going to be extremely thin. They have an absolutely miserable bench and should have trouble keeping it close when Kobe or Pau needs rest. Speaking of Kobe and Pau they are not getting any younger and shouldn’t be able to play the minutes they could in the past. The Lakers look like they are in big trouble this season and better make a move for Dwight Howard while people still think Bynum is a star player.
Memphis Grizzlies (37 wins) OVER 37.5 (-120) 2 game middle, 3 units- Memphis made a great run in playoffs last year and now they are getting Rudy Gay back from injury. I expect them to pick up right where they left off last year.
Miami Heat (47 wins) OVER 47.5 (-120) 3 game middle, 3 units- The Heatles started slow last year but I don’t expect that this year. Lebron and Wade were playing all throughout the lockout and should come right out of the gate hot. Lebron also worked on his low post game in the offseason and should add a new element to the Miami offense.
Milwaukee Bucks (28 wins) UNDER 33 (-110) 2.5 game middle, 1 unit- The Bucks return about the same team they had last year and I don’t really see how they improve this much. They could get close to this one but they are one injury away from being at the bottom of the league.
Minnesota Timberwolves (14 wins) UNDER 24.5 (-105) 2 game middle, 1 unit- At the very least the 2012 T-wolves should be an interesting team to watch. They are finally getting Ricky Rubio who has been stuck in Spain for two years. He might not be the best of shooters but he is a great passer and brings a lot of excitement to the floor. They also add #2 overall pick Derrick Williams. Williams was considered the most ready NBA prospect and should be able to contribute right away. Sadly for the T-wolves I just can’t go over on this one. That is too much of a jump for such a young team. They are a year away from making their big jump.
New Jersey Nets (19 wins) UNDER 25 wins (-110), 4 unit- After the Nets traded for Deron Williams last year they were 7-18. That isn’t very good and I don’t see it getting any better. Center Brook Lopez is already out for 2 months with a foot injury and it doesn’t look like they have the pieces to trade for Dwight Howard. If they somehow get Howard soon they can go over this but it doesn’t sound like the Magic like what they are offering. If they don’t get Howard I don’t see any way they can get over this one.
New Orleans Hornets (37 wins) UNDER 25.5 (-115), 2 units- Sorry Hornets fans but things are going to get worse before they get better. I liked the Paul trade for them and I think it makes them better in the future but for now they are in big trouble. They have pretty much no depth and should get beat up on in the 2nd half of the year when they are on their last legs.
New York Knicks (34 wins) UNDER 41.5 (-115), 1 unit- I think this line is right on the money. Last year the Knicks were only .500 after the Melo deal and getting over this would be a pretty big jump. I do like the addition on Tyson Chadler but I am not sure they have enough depth to win a lot of games in the regular season.
Oklahoma City Thunder (44 wins) OVER 46.5 (-120) 2 game middle, 2 units- The Thunder are everyone’s favorite in the West and I tend to agree with them. They are one of the youngest teams in the league and should have no trouble with the shortened season. They also now have Kendrick Perkins fully healthy. He should make them a much better team on defense and make them nearly unstoppable in the regular season.
Orlando Magic (42 wins) UNDER 37 (-140) 2 game middle, 3 units- I would go even bigger on this if I felt a team was closer to trading for Howard but even still I don’t think they get there. Getting to 38-28 even with Howard could be tough with this team. They don’t have much after Howard and could have a very tough time this year unless Howard plays out of his mind. I assume that Howard won’t be too interested in playing for the Magic this year and it will show on the court. Without him giving it all they really have no shot to get over 37 wins.
Philadelphia 76ers (33 wins) OVER 36 (-110), 1 unit- Philly was actually better than people think last year and if Even Turner can have a breakout season they should be able to go over this one. All reports out of camp are that Turner is looking good. Like many rookies he looked overwhelmed last year and should be able to show off his true talent this year with much less pressure on him.
Phoenix Suns (33 wins) OVER 26.5 (-115) 3 game middle, 3 units- I don’t really get why everyone hates the Suns this year. I know Nash is older but the guy doesn’t miss many games and should be able to lead them to at least 27 wins. I like the addition of Shannon Brown to this team. His fast paced style should fit great with Nash and should lead to some highlight reel fast breaks.
Portland Trailblazers (39 wins) OVER 36.5 (-110) 2 game middle, 2 units- The Brandon Roy retirement came as a big surprise to Blazers fans but I still think they should field a very good basketball team this year. Taking Roy’s place will be Jamal Crawford. Crawford is instant offense and should be a nice addition to a team that doesn’t have a lot of natural scorers. They also go a full year out of Gerald Wallace this year. One of the keys to this short season will be depth and Portland has plenty of that. Expect them to be in the think of it like they always are at the end of the year.
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| JIMMER!! |
San Antonio Spurs (49 wins) OVER 40.5 wins (-120), 1 unit- I am going over here because the Spurs just win. Last year when everyone thought they were too old they just kept winning and I expect that to continue this year. Everyone is healthy for them for once and they should get off to a quick start. They might have some trouble in back to back games but they should still be able to get to 41 wins.
Toronto Raptors (18 wins) UNDER 17 wins (-110), 2 units- This is one gross basketball team and I don’t see them winning very much this year. They have added nothing to their roster than mostly consists of over teams castoffs. Their only bright spot is DeMar DeRozen who could be a breakout star after averaging 20 points a game for the last 2 months last year. After DeRozen though there isn’t much. This team might be the favorite for the 1st pick in the draft.
Utah Jazz (31wins) UNDER 27 (-110), 3 units- Before they traded Deron Williams last year they were 31-26, but after they were only 8-17. They are in rebuilding mode now and don’t be surprised if they trade of most of their veterans for the future. They have a night front count or Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter to build around and they should continue to position themselves for the future. There is no chance of winning with this team and management needs to realize that.
Washington Wizards (19 wins) OVER 19.5 (-145) 3 units- John Wall should make a huge leap this year and that alone should be worth the 1 win they need to improve to get over this one. Washington is a young up and comer that should be very exciting this year. They might not win a ton of games but John Wall alone should be able to get them over 20 wins.
NBA CHAMPION- Heatles +225- Maybe the Bulls or Thunder can challenge them but after that there really isn’t a team that can hang with them. Miami should be much better than they were last year and considering they were a game away from winning the title that is pretty scary.Western Conference Champion- Thunder 3/1- Really I get 3/1 on the team that should be the favorite? The West looks like it is slightly down from last year and the only team that is returning all of it starters is the Thunder. They almost won it last year and this year they get over the hump. This is great value at 3/1.
MVP- Lebron James 4/1- This seems like way too much for the guy that is the clear cut favorite. This line might be the best value of them all. I also like Chris Paul at 10/1 as a dark horse. I also like Chris Paul for most assists per game at 3/1. Nash shouldn’t be able to play that many minutes and Rondo might not be able to be helped out as much by his teammates this year.
Rookie of the Year- Kyrie Irving 5/1- He was the 1st pick in the draft for a reason and he is going to show off early and often. Every NBA player that played with him in the offseason was wowed by his talent and that should show through on the court this year. Sure he doesn’t have much to work with around him but he should still be able to put up some great stats. He is really the only guy on his team and should be the go to guy right away. Derrick Williams is the favorite but I don’t like how much he is going to have to fight for the ball to get shots on that team.
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