Week 16 Confidence Picks

Reggie and Marshall celebrate after a game clinching 76 yard TD by Bush.

Just two weeks and things are starting to get very interesting. Seattle and Miami helped me make a big jump last week and I sit just 3 points out of 1st. staying my lane and letting everyone else make mistakes has been working for the past few weeks and I am sticking to that. I have also noticed a team that the leader always picks big so I know when i can make up ground. He loves the Giants and I know exactly where I can get him if I really need to. Many people tend to go big on a team over and over or just go crazy for their favorite team. It is a huge advantage when you can figure these out.

This is also the time when many people need to make a big move to win it all, get into the money or at the very least cash for the week. Most people think they have to pick some crazy underdog to make up ground but that just isn't the case. You can make up plenty of ground by just going big on a toss up game. People also go crazy on a bunch of games when they need to make up ground, this is also not a very smart move. You can hit on 1 or 2 of these but the odds that you hit on 3-5 are not good and you shouldn't go to crazy. All you need to do is keep it simple. If you really want to win the week and make up a ton of ground go crazy on Seattle. If you only need to make up a little bit go big on Philadelphia and/or the Jets.

Mendenhall should have a big day against the #32 run D.

Current Standings:
1343 points
1 weekly win
3rd out of 110

Home teams are in bold, percentage is the percentage of people that are currently picking each team..

16- Steelers (98%) over Rams. No Big Ben, no problem. The Rams are miserable and the Steelers still need wins if they want to get a 1st round bye in the playoffs.

15-  Ravens (98%) over Browns
14- Panthers (93%) over Buccaneers. The Bucs might be the worst team in the NFL and I don't see them having a chance in any game for the rest of the year. It looks like they have completely quit on their coach. Cam Newton should have a field day in this one.

13- Redskins (89%) over Vikings
12- Patriots (96%) over Dolphins. I think this one is much closer than people think and I love the over.  The Pats D still isn't good and Miami has been running on all cylinders as of late. If this game was in Miami I might have been able to take them but in Foxwboro I just cant. Matt Moore should be a fantasy sleeper this week.

11- Titans (91%) over Jaguars. My league locks all picks before the Thursday game so I have this one higher than I would like. Chris Johnson sounds like he is pretty banged up and I am not sure he will last the whole game. I would be under 85.5 rushing yards for CJ and I would move this one down to about 6.

10- Saints (91%) over Falcons
9- Packers (96%) over Bears. This pick coincides with me picking the Seahawks to win. If Seattle can win over the 49ers then the Packers have clinched the #1 seed and might be sitting some starters. I am still picking the Pack but not nearly as high as I normally would. If the Packers rest guys the Bears could pull this one out. Chicago can still get a playoff spot and needs this one desperately.
  
8- Texans (94%) over Colts 
7- Bengals (81%) over Cardinals
6- Broncos (83%) over Bills. Everyone seems to love the Broncos here but I am a little worried. The last time the Broncos were favored they barely beat the Bears. I don't like it when they are not playing the underdog card. They still should win but I have this a little lower than most.

5- Chargers (42%) over Lions. 

The Speedy Eagles on turf
could be a nightmare for Dallas.

4- Eagles (47%) over Cowboys. The Eagles might just be back and I am going to give them one last chance. Philly murdered them last time they played and I think the should be able to score at will once again. Plus somehow the Eagles are still in the playoff hunt and if the Giants can lose the early game the Eagles should be going all out for this one.

3- Jets (47%) over Giants. This should be one great game. The winner is the king of New York and is still in the playoff hunt, the loser is in big trouble. The Jets are -3 so I think it's best to go with the favorite here.

2- Seahawks (16%) over 49ers. Everyone is picking this one like San Francisco is some great team but I just don't see it and neither does Vegas. The line for this game is 49ers -1. Vegas thinks this one is pretty even and so do I. Seattle is 6-1 in there last 7 games and they have the best home field advantage in the NFL. Plus I think the 49ers might suffer a let down after their big Monday night win. They are also on a very short week.

1- Chiefs (52%) over Raiders. Who the hell knows with these two teams. They are both very up and down and you cant trust either. Put this one at the bottom and don't worry about it.