Tuesday, November 15, 2011

College Hoops Tip-Off Marathon Preview (Part 2)

San Diego St. at #12 Baylor (2pm)

San Diego St. had a magical season last year on the back (or maybe enormous hands) of the terrific Kawhi Leonard. However, he and the other 3 top scorers from that team are gone. This will almost certainly be a rebuilding effort for Coach Steve Fisher (even though they’ve won their first 3 games against slim competition), but their defense has been very solid so far. Baylor will certainly be a stiffer opponent, despite Perry Jones III being suspended for this game. In place of Perry Jones, however, Baylor will have freshman Quincy Miller, who should have an immediate impact on the team this season and joins veteran forwards Quincy Acy and Anthony Jones. They lost LaceDarius Dunn (all-time leading Big 12 scorer) to graduation, but are reloading instead of rebuilding. Their key for the season will be if AJ Walton can run the show and improve his assist to turnover ratio. He’ll have plenty of scorers to feed, for sure.

Key to the Game: Can San Diego St. take advantage of the void created by the absence of Dunn and Jones III (for this game at least)?

Rhode Island at Texas (4pm)

The mid-afternoon game features two teams in fairly similar circumstances. Both have lost a substantial amount of minutes from last season, but have found ways to replace them with quality players right away. Texas has used a familiar method in Austin, recruiting top-100 players. Myck Kabongo should come in and start right away at the point beside returnee J’Covan Brown. They add 3 other top-100 recruits, but probably won’t compete for the conference title this season. Rhode Island loses 6 players, but has 2 high-major transfers eligible partway through the season (including Billy Baron, brother of former Rhode Island great Jimmy Baron) and a couple freshmen coming as well. This will be a tough contest for Rhode Island without their full complement of potential players.

Key to the Game: Which coach can get their new players up to speed and cohesive as a unit right away?

#6 Duke vs. Michigan St. (7pm, New York City)

We finally arrive at the start of the prime matchups of the marathon. Michigan St. is coming off its loss to North Carolina at the Carrier Classic. Not exactly an easy next game. Michigan St. will be led all year by Draymond Green, who has great versatility and recorded 18 rebounds against UNC. They will also feature soph Keith Appling, who will have to fill the shoes of Kalin Lucas, and freshman 6’6 board-crasher Branden Dawson. Duke, is, as usual, loaded with M-name Plumlees (Miles, Mason, and Marshall). They will also run out some famous basketball last names in Seth Curry (brother of Stephen), Andre Dawkins (no relation), and all-world freshman Austin Rivers (son of Doc). Ryan Kelly is also back and looks much improved, while Coach K found a way to clone Kyle Singler and named him Alex Murphy. This looks like a typical Duke team, with some sharpshooters surrounded by white guys who crash the boards, and everyone will play tough floor-slapping man-to-man defense. Rivers will add some unusual highlights and swag to the team though. Also of note, Coach K can set the all-time NCAA men’s basketball coaching wins record with a victory.

Key to the Game: Can Michigan St. make some shots? If not, they won’t have much chance of keeping up with Duke.

#8 Florida at #3 Ohio State (8pm)

The next great matchup features last year’s best regular season team in Ohio State. They lost a few very important contributors from that team, including the best shooter in the country in Jon Diebler, team leader and defender David Lighty, as well as big body and shotblocker Dallas Lauderdale. They return, however, Jared Sullinger, last season’s kPOY. They also bring back Deshaun Thomas and William Buford, wings who can shoot and slash to the basket. Aaron Craft also got high praise for his ability to run a team and defend the perimeter last season. It could be easily argued that Florida has the best backcourt in the country. They’ve got Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker, talented guards who have started multiple years at Florida (although Boynton is something of a maligned star). Then you add to them Bradley Beal, the top ranked shooting guard in this year’s freshman class, and Mike Rosario, a stud who averaged 16 points a game while playing in the Big East for Rutgers. In the first game of the season, all 4 hit double figures. How many shots each gets will be an interesting development to study as the year goes on. In the paint, Patric Young is expected to have a breakout year after playing well for Team USA over the summer. The Gators will feel the loss of their 3 starting forwards, especially Chandler Parsons. Expect to see a lot more 3-guard lineups this year.

Key to the Game: Put simply, Patric Young on Jared Sullinger will determine the outcome of the game, unless Florida is unconscious from the outside.

#2 Kentucky vs. #11 Kansas (9pm, New York City)

John Calipari is relentless on the recruiting trail. He may even have reached the point where his program sells itself. If you’re a top recruit (especially a point guard) and you sign with Kentucky, you’ll get drafted into the NBA the next season. Why would an elite recruit choose anywhere else? Brandon Knight has shuffled out, and in his place comes Marquis Teague, the top PG recruit of the class. Additionally Anthony Davis (the #1 recruit in the class…a freakish 6’11 big man who plays like he’s both 6’2 and 6’11 at the same time), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (top 10 in the class), and Kyle Wiltjer (top 20) also join Big Blue. Kentucky should probably thank the lockout, however, because Terrence Jones and Doron Lamb return along with senior Darius Miller to give Kentucky the most returning talent the team has had in quite some time. Kansas may be renamed the Thomas Robinson Show this season. He’s a 6’9 F/C who gets comparisons to Dwight Howard for his rebounding and dunking. He blocks shots too. Kansas lost 7 contributors from last season’s excellent team, leaving only Robinson, Tyshawn Taylor, and Elijah Johnson of players who played greater than 20% of the available minutes last season. Kansas took a hit with its rebuilding as well, as 3 of their recruits were declared partial qualifiers and cannot play this season. That leaves the cupboard pretty bare and the pre-season rankings of Kansas in the polls (11) and KenPom (10) seem pretty generous.

Key to the Game: How much can Thomas Robinson actually do?

Santa Clara at UC Santa Barbara (10pm)


This should be a fun matchup, although maybe they should just make it a CBB Jam 2v2 game. Both teams have 2 great players, and not much else. Kevin Foster and Evan Roquemore are the high volume 3-point shooters who make Santa Clara go. Orlando Johnson and James Nunnally are the two-headed usage monsters who shot efficiently and also passed the ball well for UC Santa Barbara. Besides Foster and Roquemore for Santa Clara, unfortunately, there isn’t much else. Niyi Harrison is the only returning big man of consequence thanks to an injury to Marc Trasolini. Robert Garrett is an incoming freshman who might help in that area though. For Santa Barbara, they bring back big role player Jaime Serna and bigger (7’3”) role player Greg Somogyi, and add freshman T.J Taylor to potentially start at the point (although Johnson will definitely be running the show).

Key to the Game: Which duo gets someone on fire, baby!

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