Daily CBB Bet 11/21/11

With the urging of my blog peers, I will be publishing some daily value-filled college basketball bets. I probably won't do one every day, but some days will feature multiple bets. Well, let's get to it.

Today's bet:

California -5.5 over Georgia.

This is the semi-final of the CBE Classic played in Kansas City, MO (neutral floor).

Logic:

• Cal brings 4 starters back (and the one who isn't played the fewest minutes) from a team that over-achieved in a rebuilding year.
• Georgia lost 4 players from a marginal NCAA tournament team, including its two best a year early to the NBA draft.
• California's offense so far (with similar scheduling quality) has been better than Georgia's in almost every way, including both shooting % and rebounding rates. In fact, California is better in all of the Four Factors.
• Georgia is shooting 23.9% from 3 on the season.
• Georgia's defense is at its best defending the 3-point line, but California so far this year has eschewed the perimeter as a primary method of scoring (303 in the nation 3pa/fga). Georgia also does not force turnovers, which is the weakest part of Cal's offense.
• Against a similar schedule strength (according to KenPom 282 for Cal, 269 for Georgia), Cal's scoring margin is 21.67 and Georgia's is 11.