College Hoops Tip-Off Marathon Preview (Part 1)

So the college basketball season has already started, but ESPN has organized the 4th annual College Hoops Tip-Off Marathon which will take place on Monday night through Tuesday. Here are some thoughts on a few of the key games at each time slot.

Washington State at Gonzaga (12 am)

The kickoff for this marathon begins with a major conference team on the road at a “mid-major.” Obviously Gonzaga’s string of success is well-documented, but still, progress in the area of major conference teams’ scheduling is always good to see. Especially when encouraged by ESPN, the most influential invisible hand in that area. Washington St. will struggle this year after losing Klay Thompson and DeAngelo Casto to the NBA Draft and Turkey respectively. Gonzaga avoided a potential early-entry departure from Elias Harris due to his early season struggles, but did lose their top 3-point shooter and perimeter scorer (Steven Gray) to graduation. Gonzaga’s frontcourt of Robert Sacre and Harris should be pretty formidable (and draw a lot of fouls).

Key to the Game: Demetri Goodson’s transfer from Gonzaga puts question marks on the Bulldog’s point guard position. Can Washington St.’s Reggie Moore take advantage?

Northern Iowa at St. Mary’s (2 am)

This is traditionally the best game of the Tipoff Marathon. It’s just late enough that people with work early the next morning shouldn’t watch it (especially on the East Coast), but usually it’s an intriguing enough game to pay off for those junkies who do. This year should be no exception as St. Mary’s has been getting a significant amount of buzz from those “in the know”. They boast a productive front-court and lights out shooting. Basketball purists drool over St. Mary’s ball-movement on offense, and although the graduation of Mickey McConnell will hurt that to some extent (30% assist rate last season), Matthew Dellavedova had a strong showing for the Australian National Team over the summer and should be ready to take control of this team. For the Panthers of Northern Iowa, they bring in 8 freshmen, but the upperclassmen talent (specifically Anthony James, Jake Koch, and Johnny Moran) returning is strong enough to not make this a total rebuilding project (see UConn 2010-2011 for how this dynamic sometimes plays out).

Key to the Game: Northern Iowa’s poor FG% defense will be tested to the extreme by this efficient St. Mary’s attack.

Cal State Northridge at Hawaii (4am)

Hawaii returns in its typical late-night “well someone has to play during this time to make it a marathon” spot. Hawaii is on the upswing thanks to a solid first year under Gib Arnold, but they need to cut down on the number of turnovers they committed last year. Zane Johnson and Vander Joaquim are two solid players for Hawaii, but the key question for this team will be if Joston Thomas can either improve his poor shooting (especially at the line) or stop taking as many shots and leave more for Johnson and Joaquim. Cal State Northridge graduates 5 seniors (4 starters) and will have its work cut out for it this season. Fortunately, they used their depth frequently last season, but the team is very unproven. They don’t have a single player returning with an ORtg greater than 100 and more than 15% of possessions used.

Key to the Game: Will either team be fully awake (11pm local time). Home court advantage usually plays a huge role under these circumstances.

Drexel at Rider (6am)

The classic “hey I should wake up for that tomorrow” game, features two pretty good mid-majors. Drexel has been pegged as the CAA pre-season favorite, but will be without leading returning scorer Chris Fouch. That’s OK because the Dragons make their mark on defense anyways. They also return just about everyone from an 11-7 CAA team, except Gerald Colds (who was aptly named and whose departure may help their offense). Rider lost 2 of the top players in the MAAC to graduation over the offseason, but they still have talent on the roster, including 6’7 F/C Novar Gadson and newly eligible Virginia transfer Jeff Jones. However, they have been blown out of their first 2 games of the season and need to make a stand at home in this one.

Key to the Game: Me avoiding the classic “Oops I didn’t wake up, oh well.” Also, seeing who steps up for Drexel on offense to replace Fouch.

Morehead St. at Charleston (8am)

Easy headline for this matchup: How can these pretty good mid-major teams cope with the losses of their star players? Morehead St. loses almost its entire defense and rebounding (and a good chunk of its offense) in the form of Kenneth Faried. The College of Charleston loses highly efficient prolific scorer Andrew Goudelock. In the case of Goudelock, it helps that the Cougars have secured their most high-profile recruit ever in center Adjehi Baru and the Cougars’ defense should remain solid, if not improve. Morehead St. will hope to use a different tact. They are adding 10 new faces to the team in an effort to use quantity not quality to fill those minutes.

Key to the Game: Which team is able to replace its missing production the best.

Kent State at West Virginia (10am)

As the cycle of mid-major teams go, usually a team has a good season, graduates a few people, slips back into mediocrity, then climbs again a few years later when their talent and experience are high. Kent State is currently at the apex of this cycle. They return Justin Greene (voted pre-season offensive player of the year in the MAC) along with 3 other starters and replace their only graduating senior with a Junior College All-American (Chris Evans). If center Justin Manns can avoid foul-trouble, and the team adjusts well to former assistant and now head coach Rob Senderoff, this squad could make a run in March. West Virginia loses a lot of players from a decent team, and only really return Kevin Jones, Darryl “Truck” Bryant, and Deniz Kilicli, all of whom could be considered to have been disappointing last year. The freshman class is large, but the headliner of the class (Jabarie Hinds) only had a RSCI of 85. That spells middle-of-the-pack to me in Morgantown. Don’t be surprised if the Golden Flashes steal one on the road in this one.

Key to the Game: Kent St. will need to keep West Virginia off the offensive glass (6^th in OReb% last season), something they were not exactly prodigious in last season.

Belmont at #10 Memphis (noon)

This is probably the most interesting game in the whole lineup. Belmont is coming off of a scare of Duke in their first game and are #18 in KenPom’s rankings after a superb 19-1 season In the Atlantic Sun last year. They come at you to force turnovers, get easy buckets, shoot 3’s, and grab offensive rebounds. Belmont returns everyone but 2 senior role players. Memphis, on the other hand, has been selected by the pundits as a team to watch this year (pre-season poll ranking of #10), but are still only rated #23 by Mr. Pomeroy’s computers. They’ve got a talented roster and put it together more towards the end of last season. They add another talented player in Adonis Thomas, but Coach Josh Pastner needs to find a rotation that works and stick to it.

Key to the Game: Memphis has the horses to run with Belmont, but they need to keep their turnovers down to have a chance in this one.