Week 11 Confidence Picks

Week 10 might go down as the hardest week in pick’em history. Going into the week it already looked like a tough one with only 5 games with a spread over 4 points. Who knew that of those “easy” ones, the favorites would go 2-3. This caused for some of the lowest scoring I have ever seen. You know it’s an odd week when you lose on your 16, 14, and 13 and still can finish near the top of your pool. I actually had less loses on the games that had spreads of 4 or under, 2-3 vs 9-2.

In the past two weeks I have moved up 19 spots in my pool and currently sit in the money. I have been aggressive and it has really paid off. Now that I am getting close to the top, I am a little more hesitant to go out on a limb than I was before. I feel like a real chickenman this week with my picks but I really don’t see a good spot to go crazy. I think it is important not to try to force it. I will try to grind out this week and hope that there are some better spots to take risks in the weeks to come.

Current Standings:
823 points
1 weekly win
7th out of 110

Home teams are in bold, percentage is the percentage of people that are currently picking each team.

14- Patriots (99%) over Chiefs, I wish Cassel was playing in this one so people would go a little lower on the Pats. Not sure the QB change matters too much in this matchup. Raise your hand if you think this will be another Monday night blowout.

13- Packers (98%) over Bucs
12- 49ers (97%) over Cardinals
11- Cowboys (95%) over Redskins
10- Ravens (84%) over Bengals, The Ravens might be the most up and down team I have ever seen. They are 4-1 against teams that currently have a winning record but are 2-2 against teams with losing records. Lucky for the Ravens this game is at home where they 4-0. Baltimore’s problems mostly come on the road so I feel fairly confident that they will bounce back this week.

9- Lions (95%) over Panthers

8- Bears (85%) over Chargers, I really wish the Chargers won last week so more people would be picking them this week. Over the past 4 weeks the Bears have been one of the best teams in football while the Chargers are on a 4 game losing streak. Somehow the spread for this game is only 3.5. This line is way too low in my book. The Bears are running on all cylinders right now and I don’t see the Chargers slowing them down at all.

7- Falcons (89%) over Titans, The Titans are another team that no one can really figure out. They either play very well or very poorly. There is no in between with this team. Chris Johnson had his first awesome week of the season last week and might be poised to be the 2nd half MVP in fantasy. If this one was in Tennessee I might be able to pick the Titans but not in Atlanta. After a huge loss to New Orleans, the Falcons need to win this one.

6- Dolphins (24%) over Bills, I am shocked by how many people are currently picking the Bills in this one. I know the Bills are 5-4 and the Dolphins are 2-7 but the Dolphins are actually a 2 point favorite in this game. Many of the Dolphins early losses were close one and they have won easily the past two weeks. When you really look at it, the record of these two teams is really just the variance of sports. The fins have been unlucky and have lost all their close games, while the Bills have had some luck at the end of games and picked up wins. The Bills suffered another key injury to the offensive line this week in center Eric Wood. It seems like their luck has run out for this season.

Miami has been winning with the running game the last 2 weeks and they should stick to that formula against the 23rd rush D in Buffalo. While everyone proclaimed themselves right about Reggie Bush not being an every down back after the 1st few weeks, they have been awfully quiet the past few weeks. In his last 5 games, Bush has 62 carries for 355 yards, 5.7 per carry and has 3 TDs. Reggie actually has a 4.6 yards per carry on the year, which puts him 14th among RBs. Reggie has been running like he was in his USC days ( oh wait I think the NCAA told me to forget all about that) and if he can get on a roll again this week I think Miami can get the win.

The public still seems to think Buffalo is the team from the beginning of the year and picking against Buffalo over the next few weeks might be a great spot to pick up some points. People also seem very down on Miami even though they have looked pretty good for the last month. Dolphins might have a lot of value in pick'em for the rest of the year.

5- Rams (54%) over Seahawks
4- Jets (83%) over Broncos, Really hard to pick against the Tebows considering how much they have carried me the past two weeks. Although I am picking the Jets here, I have this game for a lot less points than most people and could still really benefit from a Broncos win. This isn’t the best matchup for the Jets so this one could be much closer than people think. The over/under is 40 in this one. Seems like a pretty awesome under bet. Both teams don't exactly have great offenses.

3- Giants (86%) over Eagles. I have picked the Eagles in every single game this year. That has really hurt me and I just cant do it again. The Eagles most likely wont have Vick and the Giants just might be a good team. I have this one low because I really have no idea. It wouldn't shock me if Shady Mccoy played out of his mind and carried the Eagles. But then again that would mean that Andy Reid was smart and actually gave him the ball. Not sure Andy is smart enough for that and I really don't see how they can keep that fat slob around much longer. OK that was a little mean, but I am pretty upset with how the Eagles have messed up my picks so far this year. Also if they don't have Nnamdi Asomugha cover Hakeem Nicks all over the field they should fire the defensive coordinator on the spot. They have tried to be tricky with how they use Nnamdi and it hasn't worked. Just put him on the other teams best WR and let him do what he does. Nnamdi is about as good as Revis at shutting guys down so they should finally use him that way.

2- Vikings (16%) over Raiders, Just because Carson Palmer had one good game does not mean he is now a good QB. The Chargers might just be a bad team and it’s going to take a lot more than one game to change my mind on Palmer. Unlike the Chargers, the Vikings should be able to pressure Palmer in this one and force him into some mistakes.

1- Jags (49%) over Browns, PUKE. This game should be blacked out in all cities. No one should have to witness this gross matchup.