Another strategy session involving one of the primetime games in the NFL. With 2:30 left in the 4th quarter, the Steelers decided to punt it on a 4th and long from the Baltimore 34 up by 4 points. I wanted to see the implications of trying the long field goal, going for it, and doing what the Steelers did, punt. For this WP = win probability (as calculated from a WP calculator from advancednflstats).
Kicking the field goal - Shaun Suisham has been a relatively bad kicker in his career. For his career, he is 2/6 from 50+ yards. This attempt would be about 52 yards and would be on the shorter end of that range. The game was at Heinz Field, a notorious tough place to kick, but I think we can safely use 33% as a low end estimate of his chances of making the field goal. Another assumption is a starting position of around the 30 yard line for the Ravens if the Steelers do make the field goal and kick off.
0.33*(87.4% WP [if FG is made]) + 0.67*(66% WP [if FG is missed]) = 73.06% WP
Punt - Assuming an average field position of about the 10 yard line (maybe a little ambitious), the Ravens have a 25% chance to come down the field and score a TD, meaning the Steelers WP = 75% in this case.
Going for it: Using a 4th down conversion rate of 21%, the league average on 4th and 10, and figuring a 95% WP if converted (calculator actually gives 98% but that seems slightly high):
0.21*(95% WP) + .79*(67% WP [if 4th down not converted]) = 72.8% WP.
Using these calculations, it appears as though Mike Tomlin made the right decision to punt. This of course depends heavily on the skill level of the kicker of course. If, for example, you use Janikowski's 50+ percentage, the best play shifts well over towards kicking the field goal. Now, if the Steelers don't take an unnecessary delay of game penalty before the 4th and 10, it's a whole different matter... sometimes coaching makes all the difference.
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