Tuesday, November 29, 2011

RUMOR: Rajon Rondo for Chris Paul


Now that that NBA lockout finally looks to be over, we can get back to all the great trade talk. Today, rumors started flying that the Celtics might trade Rajon Rondo. Chris Broussard reported that the Celtics are not actively shopping Rondo but would be willing to trade him. The rumors sent Celtics fans into a frenzy on Twitter. It now looks like Boston might have found their trade partner in New Orleans.

We left off last year talking about possible Chris Paul trades, and now were are picking right back up where we left off. The Hornets might be interested in Rondo because he is one year younger and makes about 25% less than Paul. Rumors are that the Hornets would want more than just Rondo for Paul. Most likely a third team would need to get involved. Paul has had some knee problems over the years and is entering the last year of his contract, so I can understand why they want to trade him; however, they could be in big trouble if they think the can build around Rondo as the best player.

While Rondo has had a solid career, he has never had to be the best player on his team. Even with the big three getting older, they are still carrying him and making him look much better than he is. You really want to build a guy who can't shoot at all? I know people love his defense, but the stats don't really back that up. Plus, how important is defensive play by a point guard really? When you look at the teams that have been good over the past years, none of the good teams have had a really good defender at PG.

One of the better stats out there is PER, which takes all stats and puts them into one number. Rajon Rondo's best year was a 19.18, Chris Paul's worst year is 22. When you look at PER, these players don't even look remotely close. During the past 4 years, Chris Paul has never finished the year outside the top 7 in PER overall. Paul finished as the #1 PG in all of those years. Rondo has never been better than 34th. Last year, he actually regressed in a big way and finished the year 69th overall. He ranked as the 16th best PG last year. That doesn't exactly sound like the type of guy you can build around.

If he is your best player, how does your team even score points? For his entire career, he has played with some hall of fame level scorers, and I am sure that Rondo's assist numbers would drop off a bunch without great players around him that score. Last year, Boston had the best field goal percentage in the league and has been 4th or better each of the last 4 years. If you really watch him, most of Rondo's assists come on passes to jump shots. Without great shooters, one could assume that Rondo's assists totals would be much less.

Most of his stats seemed inflated because of the talent around him, and he doesn't seem to be improving as a scorer. His free throw and 3-point percentages are actually getting worse. I don't know if he isn't working on his shot enough in the offseason, but he should be getting at least slightly better by now. Take a look at a guy like Derek Rose. When Rose came into the league he also was a terrible shooter and shot 22% from 3. He has improved his shot each of the last 2 years and is now a 33% 3-point shooter. He has only been in the league for 3 years so you would expect that he would continue to improve. Rondo, on the other hand, has been in the league for 5 years now and still shoots 23% from 3.

What Paul could look like in Celtic green.
Rondo also dropped his FT% down to 57% last year. This seemed to cause Rondo to shy away from taking it to the hoop last year. His free throws per game dropped to a career low 1.9 per game. For a guy who has no outside game, you would think he would want to get the ball to the hoop a lot more. Compare Rondo and Rose again: Rose went to the line 555 times last year, Rondo only took 132 foul shots. Not only does Rondo not score points, but he also does not get the other teams' big guys in foul trouble, an underrated contribution.

Beyond all of that, there have been whispers that Rondo might not be the best of teammates and has been very selfish at times. All of these are red flags for me, and I just don't see Rajon Rondo as a guy that you can build around if you want to be a very good team. Last year, New Orleans won 46 games and was a playoff team. If they trade Paul and don't get much more than Rondo back, they will, at the very least, lose 10 more games and likely would be one of the worst teams in the league.

As for the Celtics, adding Chris Paul works for both now and for the future. They can try to make one more run with the big 3 or completely blow it up. I know Celtisc fans love Rondo, but Paul is a top 5 player in this league and when you can get a super-star like Paul, you have to do it. It would also be interesting to see how good the Celtics can be with a real shooter at PG. With how great KG as a passer, teams would have a very tough time slowing the Celtics down. Boston should try their best to make a Rondo deal because right now he is one of the most overrated guys in the league.

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