Week 12 NFL Picks

Brett:

Another solid week of picks: a botched Jack Del Rio goal-line situation away from going a perfect 5-0. On a roll right now, 12-3 over the last 3 weeks. Odds say that there will be a regression to the mean; however, I might just be that good. With a few choices in the Thanksgiving Day games, I figure I'll put up my picks for the week today:

1. San Francisco at Baltimore Over 38.5 - San Fran has a pretty stout defense, but I think this total is set too low. The Ravens and 49ers are 1 and 2 in terms of least points allowed, but I'm not so sure these defenses are really that good (especially the Ravens). The 49ers have allowed more than 17 points in 4 of their 10 games (Lions, Cowboys, Eagles and Giants). Their other games were against: Seattle, Cincy, Tampa, Cleveland, Washington, and Arizona. Both teams can score (tied for 7th in the league in points). I can see both teams getting into the 20s in this game.

2. Miami at Dallas Under 44.5 - Both teams have sneakily good defenses here. Over the last 3 games, the Dolphins have not allowed a touchdown. Obviously, they haven't seen an offense quite as good as the Cowboys, but the 'Boys have been a bit more conservative over the last few weeks. Both teams aren't turning the ball over much lately, which also helps the under.

3. New York Giants at New Orleans Under 51.5 - New Orleans is pretty despicable against the run, so I look for the Giants to mix it in quite a bit and keep the clock moving. Drew Brees and the Saints don't throw many incompletions and haven't been looking deep that often this year, leading to some long drives. Both red zone offenses aren't that great (a by-product of struggling rush offenses), so this could be a fast game with a bunch of field goals. Plus, I think 51.5 is just a lot of points with the strength of the Giants' front four.

4. Houston (-3) at Jacksonville - I couldn't believe this line was under 3.5. I know, I know - Matt Leinart. Leinart has been in the system for almost two full years now. They have a healthy Arian Foster and Ben Tate. Andre Johnson is expected to be back for the Texans. Road divisional games tend to be trouble, but how bad is Blaine Gabbert? RedZone showed a bit of this game because it was close, and I can tell you that he's real bad. The Texans' defense should put 8 in the box and make Gabbert beat them.

5. Pittsburgh at Kansas City Over 39.5 - I hate to take four O/Us, but there are no sides that I really like this week. For this game, I expect the Chiefs to run more of the no-huddle offense that seemed to be effective early in the Monday Night game. Kyle Orton may play this week, which should be a decent upgrade for the Chiefs' offense. Pittsburgh has been very good on offense and not particularly stout on defense. This is my least confident of the five picks, but I still think it has solid value.

Last Week: 4-1-0
Total Season: 13-7-0

Kyle:

1.) Houston -3.5 at Jacksonville- I know people are going to be down on the Texans with Matt Leinart stepping in for Matt Schaub. But I just don't think it's going to be that big of a change. The running game for Houston is one of the top in the league and Leinart will be able to work off the play-action game. Couple that with the fact that Jacksonville is putrid offensively, I like the Texans by at least a Touchdown in this game.

2.) Oakland -4 vs Chicago- The loss of Jay Cutler is going to hurt the Bears a lot more than people are expecting. I actually think he could be in MVP contention if it weren't for his division rival QB Aaron Rodgers. With Cutler out, look for not only the Bears' passing game, but also their running game to struggle with Caleb Hanie(who?) behind center. Oakland has been playing well lately, and they are at home in this matchup. Give me Oakland.

3.) Dallas -7 vs Miami- Miami and their defense has been playing better lately, but Romo and the Boys will be looking to impress in front of their home crowd on Thanksgiving. Look for the Cowboys offense to move the ball against the Dolphins and also for the Boys D to shut down Matt Moore and the Dolphins.

4.) Broncos +6 at San Diego- TEBOW TEBOW TEBOW

5.) Pittsburgh -10.5 at Kansas City- All I have to say is Tyler Palko

Last Week: 4-1

All time: 10-10