Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Heat/Celtics and Rondo: What we've Learned

Though it's only two games into the NBA season, I think we've learned quite a bit from what we've seen. The Heatles have looked scary good, dominating both the Mavs and Celtics for the better part of each game.

Lebron and D Wade seem to be playing relaxed and loose basketball, which looks to be bad news for the rest of the NBA. Most importantly, the dudes are playing D. I think they've realized that the more defense they play, the more playground alley oops they can chuck up to each other off of fast breaks. That's kind of what we all imagined the Heat would be when the big 3 first signed together. Couple that with some role players stepping up for the Heat like Cole, Battier, and Anthony, the Heat seem to be ready to rip apart the league. It all seems to be gelling early, which is scary.

On the other hand, the Celtics have looked unsurprisingly mediocre. Though they're 0-2, they have played two really good teams on the road. Those are two games where they are expected to lose, especially without a healthy Paul Pierce. One shining sore spot for the C's has been the play of Jermaine O' Neal. In 22 minutes last night, JO went 0-1 from the field and pulled in only one rebound. Why bother even being out there? They are much more effective with KG at the 5 and Brandon Bass at the 4, who has been a pleasant surprise thus far. Bass is a knock down 15 foot jump shooter who fits in perfectly to the Celtics offense. In the long term, however, the C's are going to have to make a move to get some size in their front court.

So the Heatles are out for a revenge season, and the C's are poised for a rather mediocre regular season. What else did we learn?

The big 3 for the Celts are going to be who they are. Ray Allen is going to be one of the best knock down 3 point shooters in the league. KG is going to bury teams on the pick and roll and be the defensive heart of your team. Pierce is going to be a potent scorer (somehow) when he comes back, and he'll also be your go to guy down the stretch. But what about the wild card, Rajon Rondo?

Rondo is going to put up the stats. He'll get his ~10 assists per game. He even looks like he's going to be a lot more aggressive and try to score more this year. He'll get his rebounds, he'll get his steals. A lot of that has to do with playing with knock down shooters all over the court. But my question is, what happens in crunch time? In the past couple seasons, Rondo has been hiding in the corner at the end of games, leaving the Celtics playing essentially 4 on 5.

And once again, in each of the first two games, Rondo has shown no guts in the 4th quarter. In the Knicks game, where Rondo got much praise for his play (31 pts 13 assists), he shied away during pressure moments, scoring only 2 of his 31 points in the 4th quarter. In the Heat game last night, it was the same old story. Rondo had only 2 of his 22 points in the final quarter, turning the ball over 4 times in the 4th. Not is it just the stats that tell the story, Rondo looks petrified at the end of games, afraid to advantage of opportunities and be aggressive.

If Rondo wants to be considered one of the better point guards in the NBA (he is already is by some), then he has to be able to perform when the game is on the line. He has to give Harry Potter his invisibility cloak back and show up in pressure spots. Or else, the Celtics struggles at the ends of games will leave themselves troubled in the playoffs, watching the Heatles and Lebron hoisting the O'Brien Trophy.

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