NFL Week 14 Picks

CJ2K? Are you back? Can you lead me to an ATS win?

Brett:


Another losing week for me, dropping me to 4-6 over the last two weeks. I started off the week right with a pick on the Browns that I posted before the Thursday night game, so I'm hoping to ride that momentum throughout the rest of the week. I've been reading/hearing a lot of stuff that points to taking the underdogs this week. Among the really strong plays being discussed by various systems are the Cardinals, Titans, and Redskins. They are pretty tough plays to make, as the teams they are playing against some pretty good teams. At first glance, I was going to strongly consider their opponents. The system basically works by going against the public. When the public is heavily on the favorite side (like they are with the 49ers, Saints, and Patriots - >80%), and the line does not move, or moves the other way, then the play is to fade the public. The system is somewhere are 56% over the last 9 years and is 13-7 or so this year. Tough decisions this week, and some interesting things to think about. Enough babbling, here are the picks:

1. Browns (+14.5) at Steelers - Won this one already.

2. Texans at Bengals Under 38.5 - Two rookie quarterbacks facing off in Cincinnati could mean some rookie mistakes. Andy Dalton has been pretty good this year, but has been scuffling of late. The Texans are sporting the best defense in the NFL, so the Bengals may have some trouble scoring. I can see the Bengals putting 8+ in the box to stop the running game of the Texans to make Yates beat them. The absence of Andre Johnson in this game could mean less big plays for the Texans, which will help the under. Hoping two good defenses can keep the score low in this one.

3. Bucs (-1.5) at Jaguars - I'm just trying to stay away from Blaine Gabbert as much as possible. Josh Freeman should be back this week, and I look for the Bucs to try to get Blount very involved in this one. The Bucs have a bad rush defense, so MJD could control this game; however, the Jags are very bad. The Bucs really need this one to gain some pride. Also, I saw this line early in the week and thought it was pretty off. It has since moved to the 2.5-3 area, but I jumped on this right away as an odd line. The consensus isn't skewed much towards the Bucs, so I'm assuming some the biggest plays have come on them - usually a good sign.

4. Titans (+3.5) vs. Saints - I went with the contra-public perception pressure on this one. It's also a little bit of (what I call) a life-hedge. It means when you want something to happen, but you place a bet in the other direction to hedge your interests. In my case, I want Drew Brees to go crazy and put up a ton of fantasy points. If he does that, the Saints will probably cover. If not, then the Titans will probably cover, which helps my bet. So, I try to make it into a type of win-win situation. Additionally, I like hearing about these systems, so attempting to take a play in the system is an interesting proposition... I'll do it.

5. Eagles (-3) at Dolphins - I know, I know. I'm going back to the well that I've fallen in so many times. Those damn Eagles. Vick is back. Nnamdi is back. Maclin should be back. The Eagles are by far the more talented team. I look for them to hit their stride and hit a few big plays. The Dolphins aren't exactly the power running game that exploits the Eagles' front seven. Also, tight ends have really hurt the Eagles. Sal, er, Anthony Fasano isn't a huge weapon. Come on Eagles, have some pride! This is more a bet of heart than head, probably a bad move. If you're following, you should probably take the Skins or Cards; but I'm dumb.

Last Week: 2-3-0
Total Season: 17-13-0

Kyle: Last week was a disappointing one for the me at 1-4. But I'll give you one guess at who pulled out the one win for me. Yep, you guessed it, the Tebows! And obviously they're my first pick for the week. Here are all of them:

1.) Tebows -3 vs Chicago

2.) Texans and Bengals under 38.5: Last week I bought into the over in Houston's game against Atlanta. This week I'm flipping to the other side. Both defenses here are pretty good, and Andre Johnson being out severely hurts Tyler Yates and the Texans offense. Look for the game to be a 17-14 run fest.

3.) Eagles -3 at Miami: Miami has been playing awesome of late, but that train has to stop at some point, right? The Eagles get their highly explosive QB in Michael Vick back this week. Look for Desean to get behind the physical corners in Miami for a couple of bombs. Eagles are due to put a whoopin on someone.

4.) Washington + 8 vs New England: I used this stat earlier this year. Home underdogs that are getting more than a touchdown are 57 % in covering. Pats by a touchdown please.

5.) San Diego -7 vs Buffalo: The Chargers looked pretty damn good last week, and though they are inconsistent, they are getting somewhat healthy now. On the other end, the Bills have been decimated with injuries and have been struggling mightily. Look for San Diego to be able to move the ball all over the field on the Bills.

Last week: 1-4

All time: 14-16