Thursday, December 15, 2011

Week 15 Confidence Picks

Last week could have been a big on for me but the Cowboys had another blow up and I only picked up 1 point on the leader. That was a 15 point swing for me. I am 21 down and need to make some ground. There are not really a ton of spots to make up ground this week so I will try to just keep plugging along and let my opponents make the mistakes. You really don't want to go to crazy before you have to. If you are way back your league go with Seattle huge and try to win the week.

Current Standings:
1255 points
1 weekly win
3rd out of 110

Home teams are in bold, percentage is the percentage of people that are currently picking each team.

16- Rodgers (98%) over Chiefs
15- Patriots (80%) over Tebows. I think it is time for me to fade Tebow. Although he has carried me for the last 2 months, I just don't think they can top the Pats. This is a bit of a life hedge for me because I would love to see Tebow beat a good team and for all the haters to quiet down. Denver's defense hasn't been tested against an offense this good yet and I don't think they can hold up. Might be able to make up some ground here with everyone scared to death of Tebow.

14- Falcons (98%) over Jaguars
13- Cowboys (93%) over Buccaneers. In the 60 years before this season, Dallas lost 2 games when they had a lead of 12+ points in the 4th quarter. This season they have blown 3 games with 12+ point leads in the 4th. Just a crazy year for Dallas. They could really be 12-1 or 11-2 right now if not for some insane blow ups. I think they are way better than their record and I am going down with this ship on this one. For some reason I still believe in Romo.

12- Texans (89%) over Panthers
11- Titans (94%) over Colts. There are reports that if the Colts go winless then Jim Caldwell will lose his job. I think he should lose his job anyway but they seem to like him for some reason. This might be their best chance to win one but I don't see it. This team is miserable and should go down as one of the worst ever. You cant lose 1 player and go from 10 wins to 0 wins. Much of the blame should be on the coach and he has to go. I also hate Caldwell after he decided to rest his starters when the Colts were 14-0. The guy is the ultimate chickenman.

10- Saints (98%) over Vikings
9- Cardinals (94%) over Browns. Believe it or not, Arizona might actually be decent. Their defense has looked great over the past few weeks and John Skelton might not be terrible after all. Arizona is 5-1 in there last 6 games and should be able to beat Cleveland easily.

8- Bengals (97%) over Rams
7- Dolphins (38%) over Bills. I really don't get why most people are on the Bills here. Buffalo has lost 6 in a row by a combined score of 77-194. Just 4 weeks ago Miami beat them by 4 TDs and I don't see any reason to say this one will be different. Miami was on a roll heading in to last week but had some bad luck and QB Matt Moore was knocked out of the game. They then went to JP Losman, who I didn't even know was still alive and he returned to his old miserable form. Moore is back this week and I think Miami should get back on track. Buffalo started the year good but they have been terrible for 2 months now. Don't fall for this one and take Miami. This seems like a great spot to pick up a bunch of ground this week.

6- Seahawks (41%) over Bears. Here is my other upset pick of the week. Since Cutler went down with an injury, Chicago hasn't won a game and I dont see them getting back on track this week. If they couldn't beat KC at home then how can they beat Seattle. The Seahawks are 4-1 in their last 5 and seem like they have found their groove. Now that they are finally giving the ball to Lynch, he is running wild. Lynch is the leading rusher in the NFL over the past 6 weeks. I know every thinks that Seattle is just a good home team but they already beat the Giants on the road this year and I think they should be able to do it again in Chicago.

The Bears fall has shown how truly underrated Jay Cutler is. He was really having an MVP caliber season before the injury. Considering his miserable offensive line and terrible WRs, it is amazing that they were able to start the year 7-3. We might have another Peyton Manning situation on our hands here. I think Chicago will go 0-6 to end the season without cutler.

It could be raining Skittles in Chicago this week like it was in Seattle last week.

5- Giants (94%) over Redskins. I have this one much lower than most people cause this one feels like a trap game to me. New York is coming off a big win against Dallas and has a huge game vs the Jets next week. They might be overlooking Washington here and that could be a very big mistake. the Redskins have been pretty good with Grossman at QB this year and gave the Pats everything they could handle last week. The Giants should win but I think it is very risky to put this one too much higher.

4- Ravens (80%) over Chargers. I know I said to jump on the Chargers bandwagon last week but these are the type of games San Diego just doesn't ever win. Baltimore is the class of the AFC and should be able to handle the Chargers. San Diego might be back to their old form but Baltimore is just the better team.

3- Lions (66%) over Raiders
2- Eagles (40%) over Jets
1- 49ers (48%) over Steelers

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