NHL Betting Scheme Update

Keep riding those Flyers' overs, even with Giroux out

We're more than 1/3 of the way into the NHL season, and it's time to give an update on the NHL Over/Under betting scheme featuring teams in the top and bottom 5 in goals scored/goals against. To review, if two teams in the top 5 in goal scoring, bottom 5 in goals against, or one of each, are playing against each other, the bet is an Over. If you flip these (bottom 5 in goal scoring, top 5 in goals against, or one of each), then the bet is an Under. If you've followed this over the year to date, your numbers are looking like this:

Overs:

Wins - 18
Losses - 11
Pushes - 1

Net: +5.27 units (i.e. if you're betting $50 per game, you'd be up ~$261)

Unders:


Wins - 6
Losses - 7
Pushes - 3

Net: -1.55 units (i.e. down $76 betting $50 per game)

As you can see, your ROI is very good betting overs with the system. Hopefully that can keep up. It may turn the other way as the season draws on, as the books get more and more familiar with the high goal-scoring teams. I'm very interested to see how this turns out over a whole year. As a note, I'm generally just taking lines whenever I see them/look at the book (seeing as I'm not actually betting these at the moment). A good bettor will shop around for the best line or anticipate a line move, and would probably have a better bottom line.

Generally, overs are a "sucker bet", with the public leaning towards them in most situations. However, with the current state of the NHL, most bettors (sharps and public alike) are tending to keep to the unders. Generally, this gives you a better price betting the overs. That means this system has a pretty good chance of staying profitable for the rest of year. And if you're actually betting real money following the system, you're welcome.