Week 13 Confidence Picks

The last 2 weeks I have played it mostly safe and let my opponents make mistakes and it has been working out to perfection. I have now moved up to 1 point out of 2nd and have a real shot to win it all this year. Much of the same this week. I see no reason to go crazy just yet. My goal is to lock myself into the top 3 overall and then start taking shots in weeks 16-17.

Just 17 wins in a row for Aaron Rodgers.

Current Standings:

1041 points

1 weekly win

3rd out of 110

Home teams are in bold, percentage is the percentage of people that are currently picking each team.

16- Pats (99%) over Colts
15- 49ers (99%) over Rams
14- Packers (90%) over Giants. Aaron Rodgers has a 158.3 rating in the 4th quarter of close games. He won’t let them lose, ever again.

13- Cowboys (94%) over Cardinals
12- Saints (93%) over Lions. Detroit most likely won’t have Suh this week and that turns their defense into a very below average group. The Saints look to be running on all cylinders right now and they are amazing at home this year.

11- Ravens (97%) over Browns
10- Bears (94%) over Chiefs

This guy is the Texans new QB. WHO!?

9- Falcons (72%) over Texans. I was pretty shocked this week when Atlanta opened as only a 2.5 point favorite for this one. People know that Houston is on their 3rd QB right? T.J. YATES?! I actually thought Yates didn’t look terrible last week (unlike Tyler Palko) but I still think the Texans are in some trouble. Last week the Texans only scored 3 points with Yates at QB when he took over for Leinart at the end of the 1st half. The Texans should still be able to make the playoffs because of the running game but this week they play the 2nd best run D in the league. Seems like a very bad matchup for the Texans this week and I am really surprised only 72% are on the Falcons. I think the Falcons win this one easy. Love Atlanta -3 too.

8- Steelers (89%) over Bengals. I am semi worried about this one with how bad Pittsburgh played without Polamalu last week but I also don’t think Cincy is all that good. Polamalu has practiced this week and hopefully he has no side effects from this concussion last week.

7- Broncos (82%) over Vikings. So let me get this straight, the Broncos are 5-1 with Tebow and now they are underdogs against a 2-9 team that most likely won’t have Adrian Peterson? Something doesn’t add up here. I guess people just really hate Tebow. Loving Denver +1 this week too.

6- Dolphins (25%) over Raiders. 75% on the Raiders!? Really? This one really surprised me and reminds me of 2 weeks ago when the Dolphins were favored but most people were on the Bills. Even though Miami is 3-8, they have been one of the best teams in the league over the past month and I think they should be able to win this one too. If this much of the public is on Oakland to win and the line is still Fins -3,then that means all over the sharps in Vegas are on Miami and that makes me feel very good about going with Miami.

5- Bucs (67%) over Panthers
4- Jets (89%) over Redskins
3- Eagles (73%) over Seahawks. The Eagles playoff hopes ended last week with the loss to the Pats and I now think it’s time for Eagles fans to go the other way and start rooting for this team to lose so they can improve their draft pick. Philadelphia needs to fix the O-line and the linebacking corps and they should have 3 top 50 picks to do so. Remember that the Eagles have the Cardinals 2nd round pick which should be a high one since they are only 4-7.

The Eagles should go into the draft next year with a top 15 1st round and should be able to add a starting offensive linemen with that pick. Protecting Vick should be their top priority next year and I think this will be the perfect spot to fix that. In the 2nd round they might go with back to back linebacker picks here. The 2nd round is often where teams can get very good linebackers and this should set up perfectly for the Eagles. I expect that they should be able to fix most their problems in the draft next year. While the Eagles are a flawed team they are not that many players away from being a juggernaut and they could come out of the draft ready to actually be a dream team next year.

Is CJ finally back?

2- Titans (43%) over Bills. I think the Bills are just falling apart and I think that continues this week. I know they gave the Jets a fight last week but I think that was their last stand. CJ is starting to get back to his old form and the Titans could get into the wild card race with a win. They need it more and will take this one.

1- Chargers (85%) over Jaguars. I just have no idea what to expect out of the Chargers. Plus the last time Jacksonville played on Monday night, they beat the Ravens so I would not be shocked if they pulled this one out.