Running Quarterbacks and the Tim Tebow Project

The Tim Tebow debate has been raging on for the last 8 weeks or so with both sides of the argument gaining fuel for their particular fire. On the pro-Tebow side, the "just win baby" point has been backed by Tebow leading a mediocre (at best) team to a 7-2 record. On the other side, Tebow has thrown the ball headscratchingly bad at some points during the year, backing the "he can't be a pocket passer" camp. Though I don't think this debate will be resolved anytime soon, or ever maybe, I think it is important to think outside the box with Tebow.

Okay, maybe Tim Tebow will never mature as a passer to the likes of a Steve Young per se. But this notion that the Quarterback position has to be played in that traditional drop back pocket-passer way is a dense and simple-minded one. Though there aren't many "running quarterbacks" that have been given a true chance in the NFL, when they have been, these quarterbacks generally produce. And most importantly, they win football games. To examine the running quarterback more deeply, we turned to some serious research.

We classified a running quarterback as one who averaged 20 + yards rushing per game during a given season. We only counted seasons where the players qualified for the "running quarterback" criteria. Thus, guys like Steve McNair (RIP) and Donovan McNabb didn't have the seasons later in their career factored into our results. Here is some of the data we came up with for the records of some scrambling qb's:

- Steve Grogan: 40-20

-Mike Vick: 51-37

-Kordell Stewart: 48-34

-Vince Young: 26-13

-Donovan McNabb: 43-21

-Steve Young: 82-30

-Doug Flutie: 21-9

-Steve McNair: 55-34

-Fran Tarkenton: 41-60

-Randall Cunningham: 62-40

Borderline: David Garrard: 39-37

This comes out to an impressive .600 combined win rate, with only one having a losing record (Fran Tarkenton). Also, note that this doesn't include the latter stages of some of these guys' careers where some of them could have drastically improved their winning percentages. I believe this is quite a telling statistic. The fact all of the modern day scrambling QB's (with any significant sample size) have had winning career records speaks volumes to the effect a running QB. Now, we wanted to more deeply examine WHY these types of quarterbacks seem to be successful.

One thing that points to the success of a running QB is the positive effect they have on the running backs they play with. I'm not an X's and O's genius, but I'm assuming that the extra running threat at QB makes it so there is one less defender to collapse on the running back. Basically, one of your defenders has to account for the QB as a spy, causing there to be one less guy trying to tackle your running back. Taking a look at the numbers, the stats seem to once again speak to the "running QB effect":

Chris Johnson (not counting this year): 4.6 YPC without Vince Young < 5.3 YPC with VY

Travis Henry : 4.0 YPC without Vince Young < 4.5 YPC with VY

Warrick Dunn: 3.8 without Mike Vick < 4.5 YPC with Mike Vick

Jerome Bettis: 3.9 career YPC without Kordell Stewart < 4.4 and 4.8 YPC in 2 full years with Kordell

Like I said, I don't know the ins and outs of the football strategy, but the numbers tell the story. Running QB's have an undeniable effect on their teams ability to run the ball. This story has rung true in the short time the Broncos have started Tim Tebow. The Broncos' RBs ran the ball at 3.6 YPC rate in their five games with Kyle Orton behind center. With Tim Tebow, the running backs are running the ball at 4.95 YPC, continuing the trend. It's not as if the Broncos have played easier rushing defenses with Tebow. With Orton, the defenses averaged to be 21st in the league against the rush. With Tebow, opposing the defenses averaged to be 16th in the league against the rush. Actually, Tebow's Broncos have faced stiffer rush defenses than did Orton.

What to make of all this? Even I'm not really sure. All I can say is that there has been a real track record of running quarterbacks being successful winners in the NFL. Tebow may not be completely like these other guys, but what he brings to the table with an ability to scramble and improvise is very similar to them. And thus far, Tebow and the Broncos have won just like the others. Remember, Tim Tebow hasn't even had a full season starting in the NFL. Note that he hasn't been as bad a passer as people are knocking him for (14th in QB rating). Who knows how much he'll be able to develop as a passer. Only time will be able to tell that. But for the moment, and into the future even, his style predisposes him to winning a lot more football games than he loses.